We love mathematical sports betting - the only way to make money with betting!
In this context, of course, the world-famous Poisson distribution should not be missing...
Imagine if you could estimate the odds for the number of goals in a soccer match more accurately - that's exactly what the Poisson distribution allows you to do.
In this article, you will find out how you can use the Poisson distribution for your sports betting.
The Poisson distribution was named after the French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson, who developed it in the 19th century. It was originally developed for events such as the number of annual solar eclipses.
The Poisson distribution sounds very complex at first, but is actually quite simple to understand.
It is a probability distribution that is used to estimate the frequency of events over a certain period of time.
You can predict how likely it is that exactly two goals will be scored in a soccer match, for example.
If you want to make money with sports betting, you will notice that everything revolves around probabilities.
It's about predicting the probability of events such as goals, points or results.
The bookmakers' odds are calculated in exactly the same way.
Since relatively few goals are scored in football, this sport offers an ideal application for the Poison distribution.
Our Poisson calculator for sports betting is therefore specialized in football and you can calculate with one click how likely it is that 1, 2, 3 or 4 goals will be scored in a match.
This information is worth its weight in gold if you want to decide whether you should bet on over or under bets.
Now that you know the theory, let's dive into the practical application.
Here's a simple guide on how to use the Poisson distribution for your sports betting:
Collect data: The first step is to collect data. You need the average number of goals scored by each team in past matches. You can find this information on sports statistics websites such as flashscore
Tip: For more accurate data, only look at the statistics of the home and away games of the respective team instead of the total goal statistics.
Apply Poisson formula: Calculate the average number of goals scored for each team and insert the values into the calculator to calculate the probability for different numbers of goals (0, 1, 2, ...)
Calculate probabilities: The calculator gives you the probability for each possible number of goals. For example: How likely is it that over 1.5 goals will be scored in the match?
If your calculations show a higher probability for a certain event than the bookmakers' odds, you may have found a so-called "value bet".
This means that the bet has an expected positive value for you.
As with everything in life, there are a few pros and cons to Poisson distribution. Poisson distribution in sports betting
In this article, we have explored the basics of the Poisson distribution and its application in sports betting.
You have seen how you can use the Poisson distribution to predict goals in soccer.
Methods like the Poisson distribution are becoming increasingly important. By understanding and applying these techniques, you can make your bets more successful and emotion-free.
If you have any questions or want to learn more, don't hesitate to ask in the comments.
Good luck with your bets!
Sports betting is still a risk investment and we cannot guarantee profits and are not liable for losses.
Past successes are no guarantee of future profits. We cannot guarantee that you will achieve the same results. It could be more or less.
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